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The Bad Beat

Take the sting off some of those hard luck losses with humorist and handicapper, Jim Carr.


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Super Bowl XLIX Props Picks

January 31, 2015

If you saw my post predicting the Big Game, I am expecting the defenses to do well in Super Bowl XLIX. Some people use props to hedge their bet on the game but most of my picks are based on some things I discussed in Thursday’s prediction post (Seattle 20 Patriots 16).

Using this under bias, I think these are some good plays to take advantage:

1st half under 24 points -110 odds: First halves of Super Bowls are historically lower scoring than second halves yet this number is half the existing total of 48 for the entire game.

Will there be a score in the first 6 minutes and 30 seconds? No -115 odds: As I mentioned in my reasoning for the under on Thursday, early in Super Bowls is such a big stage there tends to be slower starts than your average game.

The first score of the game will be a FG or safety +125 odds: This bet has actually been hit the last two years on the safety side but I am playing it expecting these defenses to hold up in the red zone.

Seattle sacks over 2 +110 odds: I could see this easily being a push but I would be very surprised if this went under.

Brandon LaFell receiving yards under 54.5 -115 odds: I’m shocked this number is this high considering all 4 of Seattle’s corners can handle LaFell and I can’t see a lot of big plays his way or a lot of yards after the catch.

Total Touchdowns under 5.5 -120 odds: This seems far too high.

The MVP and the first TD bets are must-do Super Bowl prop bets, and I would lean with team you think is going to win (I have picked Seattle):

Russell Wilson MVP +350 odds: Tremendous value here considering the opposing QB in a pick ‘em game is +150 and the QB usually wins MVP.

1st TD of the game – Marshawn Lynch +500 odds, Luke Willson +1200 odds: I usually like to get a couple of guys in the mix for this bet and Lynch won me this bet last year at exactly the same odds. Luke Willson is a really solid value option here as Seattle has settled in on him being their starting TE used in goal line situations and has big play capability as well.

Luke Willson over receptions 3.5 -115 odds and over receiving yards 35.5 -115 odds: Speaking of Luke Willson, the match ups in this game favor him quite a bit as the Patriots LB’s aren’t great in coverage and at least one of them will be spying the running QB. He also has emerged as much more of a threat for Rusell Willson in the closing weeks and the books have caught up to this yet.

Other random ones:

Seattle 3rd down conversions – Over 5.5 -115 odds: I expect Seattle to use the run and have a lot of 3rd and short situations and be successful converting them.

Brady pass attempts over 36.5 -115 odds: New England isn’t a big play offense so I think they will have to plod their way down the field against this defense. I’d expect a lot of short routes underneath, and typically in close games Brady gets above this number of attempts.

Brady rush yards over 3.5 +110 odds: Brady has gone over this number 5 out of the last 6 games and while certainly not known as a rusher I’m sure he’s willing to take some hits for cheap yards if they are there, and New England still does run that quick snap QB sneak.

Will the game go into overtime? No -1000 odds:
This may be the only investment vehicle with a consistent 10% annual return over 48 years.

NFL Seahawks Patriots


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