We are down to the Final 4 which has descended upon Atlanta for Saturday's festivities. We'll talk about both games as we approach the end of the college basketball season.
Record: 73-65
Wichita State +10 vs. Louisville
The "Cinderella" of the ball is in this contest as Wichita State continues their hot play. Hard to believe they made it here especially after a three game losing streak in MVC play from 1/29 - 2/5. They also lost their last two in a row in the regular season to Evansville and Creighton. This is a team that found themselves though in March and have put up 70 points or more in four straight tournament games. Next up is the number one overall seed Louisville Cardinals who has also had relatively few problems on the court. The Cardinals overcame the horrific injury of Kevin Ware to beat Duke handily. The talk now is of extra motivation, but the loss of Ware is important. Ware averaged 16.6 minutes scoring 4.5 points per game. He helped out in the backcourt which is one person lesser now. Wichita State is a team that prides itself on not turning the ball over although they haven't faced defense like this in a long time. I had a chance to watch the Shockers way back in November when they won at VCU who plays the Havoc style. This was a young Shockers team that had lost their top five scorers so you had to think they were going to lose to the Rams. Instead, they only committed 13 turnovers pulling out a two point win.
The key is early in the game. Will the Shockers be overwhelmed by the moment? This is a veteran team with five seniors including Carl Hall and Malcolm Armstead. The longer this game is closer, the more it benefits the underdog. Louisville is supposed to be there, supposed to win this game and rather easily too. At least by Vegas' standards. The movement is heavy towards the over which you would think benefits the favorite because the public is saying that WSU won't be able to slow down the Cardinals. I think Wichita State keeps it close. There's not even a little part of me that thinks that they are going to win, but they will keep it close. Adrenaline kept the Cardinals going against Duke, but the loss of Ware will set in at some point. I think this is a Shockers cover 68-60 Cardinals.
Michigan -2 vs. Syracuse
Let me preface this by saying I'm a proud 2003 graduate of Syracuse so take this analysis with a grain of salt. I'm stunned the Orange are still playing after some of the awful play I've seen from them this season. Still, the Cuse and Michigan have played the best basketball in tournament alone. It's going to be a great game between two good teams. I'll say it now that I think the NCAA champion comes out of this game. Michigan fans probably never thought they'd be this far after losing to Penn State and closing out the regular season with some lackluster play. They are the perfect blend of toughness and athleticism as Trey Burke is the best player in the country. He paces this team with 18.8 points per game. Burke is surrounded with athletic Tim Hardaway Jr. and Glenn Robinson III as well as sharpshooter Nik Stauskas and tough as nails Mitch McGary. The Wolverines have been playing Spike Albrecht more to give a two point guard look and he can even make a long range shot or two sporting a 46.2% percentage from long-range.
The question is how this team will handle the 2-3 zone and will they be hitting their shots. The length of Michael Carter-Williams and Brandon Triche will give them fits and are able to cover a lot of ground. James Southerland and CJ Fair are offensive studs who will need to step up if they hope to win. Both have done so at certain times. The other key is also if Baye Keita and Rakeem Christmas can score a few buckets. Often it's 4 on 5 on the court as the Orange don't run plays for their centers. This is a tough matchup to handicap because there's scenarios for both sides to win and win easily. I'm going to lean to the Wolverines whose best is better then the Orange. Burke edges MCW in the point guard matchup. It'll be Michigan and Louisville in the title game.